Israel is making a strategic play to capitalize on what it perceives as Iran’s “weakened” position, following this month’s 12-day war, by exploring normalization of ties with Syria and Lebanon. Foreign Minister Gideon Saar articulated this interest on Monday, suggesting that the recent regional turbulence, including the overthrow of Iran-backed Bashar al-Assad, offers an unprecedented opportunity for new diplomatic alignments in the Middle East.
However, Saar firmly asserted that the Golan Heights, annexed by Israel in 1981 after its capture from Syria in 1967, remains non-negotiable. This position is a significant hurdle, as the international community largely views the Golan as occupied Syrian land, a view reinforced by Syria’s unwavering demand for its return. President Donald Trump’s recognition of Israeli sovereignty further complicates the issue.
This diplomatic initiative builds on the momentum of the 2020 Abraham Accords, which saw the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco establish formal ties with Israel. While these agreements represented a significant shift, they faced considerable unpopularity among Arab populations, indicating the delicate balance involved in such regional advancements.
A major impediment, however, is the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative. A senior Syrian official reiterated that any normalization must be rooted in this initiative, which calls for Israeli withdrawal from all occupied territories and the creation of an independent Palestinian state. Israel’s Foreign Minister, Gideon Saar, dismissed the Palestinian statehood precondition as “not constructive” and a security threat, highlighting a fundamental disagreement that could derail any diplomatic breakthrough.